Naples Daily News columnist Brent Batten has ruined my day. In today's entry, he lists the Colorado State University annual hurricane prediction. It opines that the chances of a hurricane hitting Collier County are there, but small. That's what has me terrified. Their record of accuracy is a joke, usually inversely proportional to actual events. They say less, it's more. Even with their mid-season tuneups, their accuracy trails former National Enquirer physic Jean Dixon.
Once the News--I believe--published a hurricane likelihood survey taken from folks on the street and compared it, at season's end, to the Colorado expert's guesses. The street folks guesses were more accurate.
Years ago at a hurricane preparedness seminar given by the National Hurricane Center the former director, Dr. Neil Frank, told us, "Anyone who tries to predict the weather more than 24 hours in advance is either a fool or a charlatan."
So, "slight chance" of a hurricane in Collier? It's down to Home Depot for plywood for this ol' hoss.
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